...what I'm saying is that FDR's policies made the Depression worse than it would have otherwise been. What you are engaging in here is a flawed piece of logic known as "post hoc ergo propter hoc" ("after this, therefore caused by this").
I am well aware that there is not always a cause-effect relationship between Economic Policy "A" and Economic Result "B". But sometimes, Economic Policy A does cause, or partially cause, Economic Result B. And based on the evidence and what I know about people and economics, I believe the cumulative effect of FDR's programs help renew confidence and set the stage for recovery. It is in large measure an opinion, because I can't definitively prove it-- but I am not engaging in flawed logic.
The laws of economics are just as immutable as the laws of physics and all the regulation, stimulus packages, TARP programs and bailouts in the world won't change that.
Economic predictions are based on assumptions and guesses rather than laws. Economics is not at all like physics in that respect.There are no "laws" of economics that are "just as immutable" as the laws of physics.
The economy is based on an aggregation of human behavior, and that is simply not perfectly predictable. For example, I'd like to hear the "law" that could predict that I would buy a new car last fall, since I didn't even know I was going to buy one myself until a few weeks before I bought it! Then when I made the decision to buy, I spent a few thousand more than I intended because a particular car caught my eye-- another entirely unpredictable event. Even in hindisight, I defy anyone to be able to analyze my economic decision and identify some universal "law" that caused me to buy the car that I did.
Seems to me you and I had this discussion a couple of years ago, Skymutt and I found little to disagree with you on back then.
You didn't disagree with me in that post because you mistakenly thought I was criticizing the Paulson/Bernanke bailouts when I wasn't. Re-read the thread.
FDR's administration was just a continuation of the same failed policies [as Hoover]
Really?? Care to try to match up New Deal initiatives with the equivalent policy under Hoover? What Hoover policy was "the same" as:
- Massive "make-work" programs such as the CCC and the WPA (and by the way, calling these programs make-work is more than a bit unfair considering that so many of the things built by these initiatives are still in use today)
- The TVA and massive rural electrification efforts.
- Securities reform-- the creation of the SEC and the passage of Glass Steagall
- Bank reform and the creation of the FDIC
- The creation of Social Security
- The creation of a minimum wage and labor reforms
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