Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to finish the year at $539 billion in 2024, which is a 26 percent increase from 2023’s total of $429 billion. This is according to an updated baseline forecast released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to rise to $297 billion this year – a 21 percent increase from last year’s estimate of $246 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $665 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $390 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

"The recent moderation in interest rates, coupled with the large volume of loans maturing in coming quarters, should prompt an uptick in mortgage borrowing from the low levels we’ve seen over the last two years,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Head of Commercial Real Estate Research. “The exact timing of the bounce-back will depend on how quickly property owners jump on long-term interest rates that are down significantly from where they were a year ago.”

Woodwell continued, “Commercial mortgage originations have historically followed property prices, and the uncertainty about the future path of interest rates has been a contributing factor to the current slowdown – with many investors holding off selling or refinancing a property in the hope of lower rates. With longer term rates now lower, many of those players are likely to take action. Investors looking to shorter-term financing can also take solace in signs from the Federal Reserve that they will soon begin bringing down the short end of the curve.”

For additional commentary on the sector, visit MBA's Commercial/Multifamily Market Intelligence Blog.

MBA's commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA's latest Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/crefresearch.